Saturday, January 28, 2012

One Year Economic Forecast of 10/27/2010 Vs. Actual

One Year Economic Forecast of 10/27/2010 Vs. Actual Original Forecast in Green Font; Actual in Black

Forecast: A couple things seem certain to drive an economic recovery:

For 2-3 years, the population has been growing and maturing but has been unable to make timely, seasoned, structural purchases in their lives.
This is building pent-up demand that is getting larger than normal in a recession because this one is more prolonged. The longer the recession goes, the more the pent-up demand will grow. This includes big-ticket items like houses, cars, appliances, etc.
Actual News as of 2/12/2011: "We're starting to see people showing an inclination to go back into the dealerships, to go back into the malls," said Jim Bunnell, general manager of General Motors Co.'s U.S. sales operations. "It's not going to happen overnight, but we think as we roll through 2011, we're going to see a nice, gradual improvement and recovering in the automotive sector."

For most of 2010, car sales were driven by people who needed a car rather than wanted a car. Jeremy Anwyl, CEO of consumer website Edmunds.com, says that still holds true at the end of the year: "They've been putting it off and they can't put it off any longer. Some people waited till this time of year to catch the close-out deals."                                                                                                                                          

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