Sunday, January 29, 2012

Thursday August 4. I thought I’d better fess up: my forecasts had been reasonably accurate, until today.


Thursday August 4. I thought I’d better fess up: my forecasts had been reasonably accurate, until today. The market has broken out of my forecast for the Dow fluctuating between 11,900 and 12,900 for 2011. I think the debt crisis may have served some good purpose, but it surely was a nerve-shattering experience. Investors are acting like their nerves have been shattered.

Comment: OK, game’s changed. This is a situation where, if you want, you can try to “buy through the bottom”. Any takers? Only problem is, you need money to do that. I spent my cash buying as the market dropped over the last two weeks. I had a plan, I followed my plan, and the only problem is, it wasn’t a very good plan. But it’s still better than having no plan. I am glad I sold the $15,500 in equities. It was when the Dow was at 12,600-700, which looks good now, with it sitting at 11,383.68. I bought bonds, which have dropped very little. So that’s a good thing.

Politics: I personally think some real damage has been done to the political system’s ability to manage the economy. It’s being ideologically driven. Many people seem to be fed up with compromises and want to blow up the system. They seem to be saying, If we cannot have it our way, nobody is going to get anything.

No comments:

Post a Comment