The
Commerce Department said Thursday new-home sales fell 2.2 percent last month to
a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 307,000. The pace is less than half the
700,000 that economists say must be sold in a healthy economy.
About
302,000 new homes were sold last year. That's less than the 323,000 sold in
2010, making last year's sales the worst on records dating back to 1963. And it
coincides with a report last week that said 2011 was the weakest year for
single-family home construction on record.
The
median sales prices for new homes dropped in December to $210,300. Builders
continued to slash price to stay competitive in the depressed market. Still,
sales of new homes rose in the final quarter of 2011, supporting other signs of
a slow turnaround that began at the end of the year.
Sales
of previously occupied homes rose in December for a third straight month. Mortgage
rates have never been lower. Homebuilders are slightly more hopeful because
more people are saying they might consider buying this year. And home
construction picked up in the final quarter of last year.
"Although
this decline was unexpected, it does not change the story that housing has
likely bottomed," said Jennifer H. Lee, senior economist at BMO Capital
Markets. Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, said
easier lending requirements, historically low mortgage rates and improved
hiring all point to consistent, albeit slow, rises in sales in the coming
months.
"A
sustained rise in new home sales is imminent," he said. "Homebuilders
say so too, and they should know."
Hiring
is critical to a housing rebound. The unemployment rate fell in December to its
lowest level in nearly three years after the sixth straight month of solid job
growth.
Economists
caution that housing is a long way from fully recovering. Builders have stopped
working on many projects because it's been hard for them to get financing or to
compete with cheaper resale homes. For many Americans, buying a home remains
too big a risk more than four years after the housing bubble burst.
Though
new-home sales represent less than 10 percent of the housing market, they have
an outsize impact on the economy. Each home built creates an average of three
jobs for a year and generates about $90,000 in tax revenue, according to the
National Association of Home Builders.
A key
reason for the dismal 2011 sales is that builders must compete with
foreclosures and short sales — when lenders accept less for a house than what
is owed on the mortgage
Builders
ended 2011 with a third straight year of dismal home construction and the worst
on record for single-family home building. But in a hopeful sign, single-family
home construction, which makes up 70 percent of the market, increased in each
of the last three months.
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