Saturday, January 28, 2012

On Friday June 17, the DJIA closed at 11,934. I said on Friday it would go back up to around 12,500 next. It seems to be doing that. It has gone up Monday, Tuesday and today, Wednesday June 29 and closed at 12,261 today.


On Friday June 17, the DJIA closed at 11,934. I said on Friday it would go back up to around 12,500 next. It seems to be doing that. It has gone up Monday, Tuesday and today, Wednesday June 29 and closed at 12,261 today.

Here is what the news said, “NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street closed its best three-day run in three months on Wednesday after the Greek parliament approved austerity measures to avoid defaulting on its debt.

Optimism about the plan's approval has helped the stock market recoup some of its losses of the last two months. The CBOE Volatility Index <.VIX>, Wall Street's "fear gauge," fell 9.9 percent to 17.27, its third straight decline”.

Action: Last Friday, we all should have put in orders to purchase large cap equities for Monday.

On Friday June 17, the DJIA closed at 11,934. I said on Friday it would go back up to around 12,500 next. It seems to be doing that. I would guess that it will creep back up to around 12,500 and fluctuate around there for a while. What do we really care about Greece after all? It’s just not a central issue. I don’t care if they look at it. I think it’s overblown. But it is obvious the economy still has major problems, and the international situation is unsettled. So it is also a good bet that there will be another "correction" this calendar year, with the DJIA dropping below 12,000 again. I am predicting the DJIA will close the year around 12,700 because that will show a small year-over-year increase, allowing for the 2 1/2 growth rate of the GDP. In 2012 with the upcoming presidential elections and the "natural" progression of the economic recovery, investors will bid up the DJIA to above 13,000 and test the waters there. I checked, and the previous all-time high on the DJIA is 14,164. That is a psychological top, and investors will not support that again until they feel we are sufficiently "out of the woods" on the recession and reasonably securely into another period of some sustained economic growth. If all goes well, we could see that in 2013. The problem with that is that with pre-election priming and post-election "dumping" we will need a reasonably strong recovery (say 3 1/2 growth average for four quarters - one year). But ... the economy always comes back, just like it always panics periodically. Ben Franklin’s saying needs to be amended and updated: death and taxes are sure things, and so it the DJIA: it will go down, and it will go up: we can count on that!

No comments:

Post a Comment