On Friday June 17, the DJIA closed at
11,934. I said on Friday it would go back up to around 12,500 next. It seems to
be doing that. It has gone up Monday, Tuesday and today, Wednesday June 29 and
closed at 12,261 today.
Here
is what the news said, “NEW YORK
(Reuters) - Wall Street closed its best three-day run in three months on
Wednesday after the Greek parliament approved austerity measures to avoid
defaulting on its debt.
Optimism about the plan's approval has
helped the stock market recoup some of its losses of the last two months. The
CBOE Volatility Index <.VIX>, Wall Street's "fear gauge," fell
9.9 percent to 17.27, its third straight decline”.
Action: Last Friday, we all should have
put in orders to purchase large cap equities for Monday.
On Friday June 17, the DJIA closed at 11,934. I said on Friday
it would go back up to around 12,500 next. It seems to be doing that. I would
guess that it will creep back up to around 12,500 and fluctuate around there
for a while. What do we really care about Greece after all? It’s just not a
central issue. I don’t care if they look at it. I think it’s overblown. But it
is obvious the economy still has major problems, and the international
situation is unsettled. So it is also a good bet that there will be another
"correction" this calendar year, with the DJIA dropping below 12,000
again. I am predicting the DJIA will close the year around 12,700 because that
will show a small year-over-year increase, allowing for the 2 1/2 growth rate
of the GDP. In 2012 with the upcoming presidential elections and the
"natural" progression of the economic recovery, investors will bid up
the DJIA to above 13,000 and test the waters there. I checked, and the previous
all-time high on the DJIA is 14,164. That is a psychological top, and investors
will not support that again until they feel we are sufficiently "out of
the woods" on the recession and reasonably securely into another period of
some sustained economic growth. If all goes well, we could see that in 2013.
The problem with that is that with pre-election priming and post-election
"dumping" we will need a reasonably strong recovery (say 3 1/2 growth
average for four quarters - one year). But ... the economy always comes back,
just like it always panics periodically. Ben Franklin’s saying needs to be
amended and updated: death and taxes are sure things, and so it the DJIA: it
will go down, and it will go up: we can count on that!
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