Sunday, January 29, 2012

Friday July 29. And now with the Dow approaching 12,100, it’s starting to bump the lower edge of our forecasted band


Friday July 29. And now with the Dow approaching 12,100, it’s starting to bump the lower edge of our forecasted band and we’re getting into a basic BUY situation. But we can’t buy anything without cash (or credit, but credit costs money). So hopefully, we sold something at the top.

Friday July 29. In the stock market,

1. We shouldn’t  look for what we want to do
2. We should look for what we can do

So what can we do? We can predict the DJIA (which we have indicated we can do)

1. Select a large mutual fund, like an index fund, that represents the broad market and moves with it
2. Move in and out of it according to your market predictions

The DJIA is fluctuating between 11,900 and 12,900 - more often between 12,000 and 12,800, and more often than that between 12,100 and 12,700

That is what we have seen it doing just this last week.

That is why when it closed at 12,571 (07/20 Wednesday DJIA 12,571.91) We observe it on Thursday, and it is headed up big. Our forecast says that if it started to approach 12,700-800, then it was about as high as it was going to get this year.

On Thu, Jul 21, 2011 at 7:43 AM, Tom Courtney <usaforklift@yahoo.com> wrote: anything you want to sell: sell it today.
It closed Thursday at a two-year high DJIA 12,724.41 (+152.50)

BECAUSE OF ALL THE BASICALLY BAD ECONOMIC STUFF STILL ALL AROUND, it was bound to drop.

If fact, it has dropped the last five sessions

28 12,240 - 062
27 12,302 - 199
26 12,501 - 091
25 12,592 - 089
23 12,681 - 043
22 12,681 - 043

and is dropping again today Friday July 29.

It was a chance to sell when it was at 12,724 because that was in the upper band of our forecast for it. And remember why we forecast that? The all-time high DJIA was 14,150, but we're struggling in a real estate, jobs, credit, deficit and market recession, the worst in 75 years. HOW COULD IT POSSIBLY APPROACH ITS ALL-TIME HIGH IN THESE CONDITIONS? IT CAN'T!

THERERFORE ...

when we observed it at 12,724, we KNEW IT WAS GOING TO DROP. Hence, we are in a SELL SITUATION. That ‘s the basic order.

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